Re: [Gnu-arch-users] Re: [OT] the poetry of donald rumsfeld

[Tom Lord]

    > From: "Pierce T.Wetter III" <address@hidden>

    >   Actually, my interpretation is that even Saddam thought he had WMD.

Wow.   I haven't heard that one before.

I find it utterly implausible.  Totalitarianism is always built on a
system of factionalized informants all intersecting with every aspect
of life --- no such large-scale conspiracy could have worked.  The
pointlessly suicidal behavior of some of the Iraqi military during the
conflict, along with plenty of other evidence, suggests that Saddam's
regime was functioning quite well -- it was just weak.  Finally, if
your hypothesis were the case, then we would have heard by now about
all the fraudulent documents constructed to give Saddam a false sense
of security.

A far more likely hypothesis has two parts (I'm cribbing-from and
paraphrasing Blix and, of all people, Harry Shearer (the voice of
Mr. Burns, on the Simpsons)):

1) Regionally, uncertainty about Saddam's military capabilities 
   was worth a lot to him.   If his basic weakness were transparent, 
   he'd have had trouble from neighbors and internally.

2) He didn't believe that the UN efforts were in good faith.  He had
   no credible positive incentive to come clean.

He was between a rock and a hard place and so I'll add my own (3):

3) He was probably accustomed to back-channel diplomacy and squeaking
   by with a wink and a nod.  He thought of himself as part of the
   "balance of power" in the region and thought that gave him more
   leverage than it really did.  Maybe he even _did_ come somewhat
   clean behind the scenes but was rudely interrupted by a cessation
   of those contacts.  That would explain how we had confidence that
   an invasion would succeed and why we embarked on a power-play to
   dispose of his regime.

-t