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Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances

From: Mueller Achim
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances
Date: Tue, 5 Aug 2008 18:24:47 +0200

Hi Christian,

Am 05.08.2008 um 15:13 schrieb Christian Anthon:

Hi Achim,

it is not an entirely easy question to answer. But here is a short
explanation of the numbers:

Luck total EMG (MWC)                    -5.700 (-12.144%)       -2.564

means that B gained 20.291+12.144 = 32.435% MWC by luck. As he
presumably started the match with 50% MWC, that means that he gained
100-50-32.435=17.57% MWC through skill:

Luck adjusted result                            -17.57%

or that he wins 32.43:67.57% of the matches. Whether these numbers are
good or meaningful I don't know.

Are sure about this? Then Robert-Jan Veldhuizen mus be wrong:


# Luck adjusted result GNUBG also measures the amount of luck a player got every roll. Adding it all up, GNUBG compensates the actual result above for luck and comes up with an adjusted figure. +0.83% and -0.83% here means that GNUBG thinks Y-33 had 50.83% chance to win this match, compared to my 49.17%. Since GNUBG has "removed" the luck, this should be an unbiased skill indicator. Unfortunately, it isn't always very accurate, especially not for shorter matches, but a useful figure nevertheless.

No matter whether I use your interpretation (player B wins 32.43%, player A 67.57%) or his (vice versa), this number can't be very meaningful. Your "skill" always depends on how much luck you have. With an error rate difference less than 1 (snowie) the difference in skill can't be that big. But perhaps I miss something here.

That's why I asked for the fibs ratings. I guess these numbers are more reliable
regarding match winning chances.



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