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## Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances

 From: Mueller Achim Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances Date: Tue, 5 Aug 2008 18:24:47 +0200

```Hi Christian,

Am 05.08.2008 um 15:13 schrieb Christian Anthon:

```
```Hi Achim,

it is not an entirely easy question to answer. But here is a short
explanation of the numbers:

Luck total EMG (MWC)                    -5.700 (-12.144%)       -2.564
(+20.291%)

means that B gained 20.291+12.144 = 32.435% MWC by luck. As he
presumably started the match with 50% MWC, that means that he gained
100-50-32.435=17.57% MWC through skill:

+17.57%

or that he wins 32.43:67.57% of the matches. Whether these numbers are
good or meaningful I don't know.
```
```

http://www.gammonlife.com/gnu/gnu2.htm

```
# Luck adjusted result GNUBG also measures the amount of luck a player got every roll. Adding it all up, GNUBG compensates the actual result above for luck and comes up with an adjusted figure. +0.83% and -0.83% here means that GNUBG thinks Y-33 had 50.83% chance to win this match, compared to my 49.17%. Since GNUBG has "removed" the luck, this should be an unbiased skill indicator. Unfortunately, it isn't always very accurate, especially not for shorter matches, but a useful figure nevertheless.
```

```
No matter whether I use your interpretation (player B wins 32.43%, player A 67.57%) or his (vice versa), this number can't be very meaningful. Your "skill" always depends on how much luck you have. With an error rate difference less than 1 (snowie) the difference in skill can't be that big. But perhaps I miss something here.
```
```
That's why I asked for the fibs ratings. I guess these numbers are more reliable
```regarding match winning chances.

Ciao

```
Achim
```

```