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Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances

 From: mailinglists Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances Date: Thu, 07 Aug 2008 11:38:11 +0200 User-agent: Internet Messaging Program (IMP) H3 (4.1.3)

```Hi Nis,

```
first of all thanks for a great explanation. Indeed I did misread/misinterprete the LAR before.
```

```
```Mueller Achim skrev:
```
```
```
```Christian wrote something which could be misread. Jan's description is
more precise. Estimated Win % = 50% + LAR
```
```
```
The reason why I'm diving deeply into it is the following. I try to figure out whether I'm able to beat the rake on certain backgammon servers. Of course some reliable numbers and calculations wouldd help here enormously. A few examples from last night. I'm always player B, besides the last one (3p) all matches to 1p, a * shows who won:
```
Player:                           A         B
Snowie error rate:                4.5      0.8
Error based abs. FIBS rating:    1667.8   1991.9

Snowie error rate:                3.5      1.7
Error based abs. FIBS rating:    1693.0   1910.1

Snowie error rate:                5.4      0.3
Error based abs. FIBS rating:    1576.3   2026.0

Snowie error rate:               21.3      0.1
Error based abs. FIBS rating:    1619.3   2046.6

As you might have guessed already, this is from one tournament.

```
My key question now is: how much of an advantage do I need to beat a rake of 10%, 15% or 20% (that's what they take on certain bg servers for low level tournaments).
```
Fibs formula (rounded)     LAR     Luck Rate

1)    59%                    63.13%   36.87%
2)    56%                    36.50%   63.50%
3)    62%                    61.94%   38.06%
4)    62%                    60.38%   39.62%

```
The first column is something I can deal with, the second and third not. I do not have the Snowie MWC present, but I bet they totally differ from the column LAR.
```
Ciao

Achim

```