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Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances

From: mailinglists
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances
Date: Wed, 06 Aug 2008 10:06:22 +0200
User-agent: Internet Messaging Program (IMP) H3 (4.1.3)

Zitat von Mueller Achim <address@hidden>:

That's why I asked for the fibs ratings. I guess these numbers are more
reliable regarding match winning chances.

I missed the nearby ...


Winning prob. = 1-(1/(10^((YOU-HIM)*SQRT(ML)/2000)+1))


1/(1+10^-((YOU-HIM)*SQRT(ML)/2000)) at http://www.bkgm.com/faq/Ratings.html

where YOU=your rating, HIM=his rating, ML=match length

For 1955.2 vs 1966.7 this results in 0.48483648 ~ 48.5%, a number which seems to be much more reliable.

Question: is it possible to implement this formula into the statistics panel?



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