RE: Swarm and GIS libraries

[Frank Lenk]

Sorry for reposting, but it appears my original message got trashed about 
halfway through.

Frank

>Alex - 

>I am basically a lurker, having no UNIX or C++/Objective C experience.  
>However, I am an experienced economic modeler and forecaster who believes we 
>will never be able to predict the non-linear behavior we observe until we 
>understand how individuals behave and interact to create the aggregate.

>My special field of expertise is forecasting how urban areas grow and develop, 
>and my interest is in discovering the least intrusive policies that alter the 
>dynamics to produce economies that generate growing equality of opportunity, 
>rather than growing inequality, and that produce balanced, sustainable growth 
>rather than rapid growth outward coupled with decline and disinvestment inward.

>The agent-based part of Swarm gets half the picture, if you think of agents as 
>human beings interacting with one another.  The other half is the environment 
>in which they live, which constrains many of the possible choices agents might 
>otherwise have.  Indeed, the difference in environments contributes greatly to 
>urban form -- I live in Kansas City, and the vast quantities of farmland that 
>surround the metro seem especially conducive to growing outward rather than 
>upward.

>In my minds eye, I picture the ideal modeling framework as essentially a 
>digital aerial image of the Kansas City area upon which my agents are 
>wandering, producing, traveling, buying housing, etc.  As I watch, the aerial 
>image changes, with urban development spreading outward, housing being 
>demolished inward, traffic jams up where growth exceeds capacity and flows 
>unimpeded where the demand anticipated to be served by a new highway never 
>shows up.  

>In essence, I am watching a raster image being built up over time, except it 
>is an intelligent raster.  I can ask it (or actually my agents wandering on 
>top of it) why the development proceeds as it does.  Ideally, I would 
>calibrate the model by starting with one raster image and altering parameters 
>to best match a sequence of later images.

>GIS becomes very important in representing the physical environment, which in 
>turn often determines the lowest cost places to develop and serve with sewers. 
> Certain kinds of production activities also need certain environments, e.g. 
>access to rail or water.  Quality environments contribute to high demand.  
>Poor environments lead to all kinds of undesirable outcomes.

>The type of interaction between agents and their environment that I envision 
>requires a high degree of interactivity between Swarm and the GIS.  Agents 
>continually modify their environment by transforming land of one type to 
>another (e.g. farm to housing), or from one value to another (e.g. high valued 
>today versus lower valued tomorrow or deteriorating today to redeveloped 
>tomorrow).  

>And it seems to be the interaction between agents and their environment 
>responsible for many of the social issues faced today.   For example, many 
>believe it is not poverty per se that creates problems but concentrated 
>poverty, i.e. not just lack of income but physical isolation from the rest of 
>society.   

>I realize this is all vision/vapor.  I hope it may be useful to keep in mind 
>as the hive proceeds to the difficult, practical decisions ahead.

Frank Lenk
Director of Research Services
Mid-America Regional Council
Kansas City, MO
address@hidden



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