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Subject: |
A unique Ecology/Economic/Decision model |
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Date: |
Mon, 20 Sep 1999 13:10:31 -0400 (EDT) |
Dear Colleagues:
This is to draw your attention to a unique paper and a following set of
Commentaries on that paper that have just been published in Conservation
Ecology. (Carpenter, S., W. Brock, and P. Hanson. 1999. Ecological and
social dynamics in simple models of ecosystem management. Conservation
Ecology 3(2): 4.
[online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol3/iss2/art4). It includes a
simulation model that can be downloaded into your computer from the paper.
The Commentaries review this remarkable paper from the perspectives of a
resource ecologist (Gunderson), a mathematical ecologist (Levin), political
scientists (Pritchard and Sanderson) and an economist (Perrings).
This paper describes and explores an ecological/economic policy model,
representing a prototypical region containing different water and land
uses. The model includes a representation of the way decisions are made to
control lake pollution. It can be run as a stand-alone economic
optimization or as a game where participants in a class or workshop can
initiate the year by year actions of the various experts or stakeholders.
Two features make this unique.
The first feature is the behavior of the model. In brief, the behavior is
completely surprising for existing standard ecological or economic theory.
But it is entirely credible when compared to real examples of regional
resource and environmental management.
The second is its structure. The ecosystem representation includes some
minimum necessary attributes required to represent adequately ecosystem
behavior i.e. three variables functioning at three qualitatively different
speeds, and non-linear relationships that generate multi-stable states and
"flipping" behavior. It is based on Carpenter's extensive research on lake
systems. This ecosystem module then is connected to an economic
optimization module and to modules representing information and decision
processes.
I do not know of any other model that contains all these features- all
necessary in any credible effort to represent ecological and economic
behavior and decision.
The paper is the lead one in a Special Feature: Recent Advances in
Ecological Theory and Practice. You will note at the end of my
introduction, that I invite readers to download and explore the model- as a
learning game with students or as a stand-alone optimization. That
introduction is at http://www.consecol.org/Journal/vol3/iss2/art1/.
If you have an interest and an appropriate situation, please share the
conclusions you come to by using the easily used Response facility
associated with the paper.
Sincerely,
C.S.Holling
Editor-in-Chief
Conservation Ecology
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