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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confused

From: tchow
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confused
Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 21:51:48 -0400
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On 2015-06-15 08:24, Ian Shaw wrote:
I was under the impression that many more games were required to
separate backgammon bots.

I suppose that a match can only have a 0 or 1 outcome, unlike $ games.
This must reduce the number of required trials somewhat.

Well, it certainly simplifies the calculation; whether it reduces the number of trials is not immediately clear to me because I'm not sure exactly how I would do the money-game calculation. There are couple of different plausible possibilities.

But more to the point, I actually have the same impression that you do, that more trials are needed. Lucas's results surprise me because on the surface, they suggest that 2-ply is about 75 Elo stronger than 3-ply. That is a much larger Elo gap than I would have expected. I suspect that 2-ply isn't actually as much as 75 Elo stronger than 3-ply. As I said before, while Lucas's results do strongly suggest that 2-ply is stronger than 3-ply at 5-point matches, they don't give us a very sharp estimate of *how much* stronger 2-ply is. If we wanted that then we should start a fresh series of matches, stating ahead of time what hypothesis we're testing (e.g., that 2-ply has at least a 55-45 edge over 3-ply in 5-point matches).


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