
From:  tchow 
Subject:  Re: [Buggnubg] Confused 
Date:  Tue, 16 Jun 2015 21:51:48 0400 
Useragent:  Roundcube Webmail/0.9.5 
On 20150615 08:24, Ian Shaw wrote:
I was under the impression that many more games were required to separate backgammon bots. I suppose that a match can only have a 0 or 1 outcome, unlike $ games. This must reduce the number of required trials somewhat.
Well, it certainly simplifies the calculation; whether it reduces the number of trials is not immediately clear to me because I'm not sure exactly how I would do the moneygame calculation. There are couple of different plausible possibilities.
But more to the point, I actually have the same impression that you do, that more trials are needed. Lucas's results surprise me because on the surface, they suggest that 2ply is about 75 Elo stronger than 3ply. That is a much larger Elo gap than I would have expected. I suspect that 2ply isn't actually as much as 75 Elo stronger than 3ply. As I said before, while Lucas's results do strongly suggest that 2ply is stronger than 3ply at 5point matches, they don't give us a very sharp estimate of *how much* stronger 2ply is. If we wanted that then we should start a fresh series of matches, stating ahead of time what hypothesis we're testing (e.g., that 2ply has at least a 5545 edge over 3ply in 5point matches).
Tim
[Prev in Thread]  Current Thread  [Next in Thread] 