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## Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances

 From: Massimiliano Maini Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances Date: Tue, 13 May 2008 17:15:18 +0200

Forget my last reply, didn't notice yuou were referring to the MWC formula ...

MaX.

Massimiliano Maini/NCE/AMADEUS wrote on 13/05/2008 17:11:42:

> I think the formula is already in gnubg, it's the "Error based abs.
> FIBS rating".

>
> MaX.

> 13/05/2008 17:06:04:
>
> > That is exactly what I am searching for. Thank you very much. I
> > suppose that even with a biased cube error rate I will get pretty
> > good results. The rating difference D must be D = R_favorite -
> > R_underdog, right?
> > Now that you are thinking about recalculating the values submitted
> > by Kees van den Doel, how about integrating the formula into GnuBG?
> > I think that would be quite handy and appreciated by most users!
> > Thanks for your efforts and good luck with the calculations. I am
> > looking forward to the reviewed formula!
> >
> > Thomas Koch
> >
> >

> > 2008/5/12 Michael Petch <address@hidden>:
> > Considering that all you need is EPM and EPC (The error rates for
> > the Unforced moves, and cubes) - the player records will suffice.
> > The value N in the formula is the match length. These 3 values can
> > simply be plugged into this reduce formula:
> >
> > R = (8798 + 25526/N)*EPM+(863 - 519/N)*EPC,
> >
> > R = ratings differnce based on checker, cube play, and match length values.

> >
> > On 5/12/08 10:33 AM, "Michael Petch" <address@hidden> wrote:

> >
> > The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel:
> >
> > http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/
> >
> > The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized at the
> > top. How the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90% of
> > the article after that.
> >
> > Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then use
> > the Fibs formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC. The
> > part of the fibs formula you want is here:
> > Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use it as
> > the value for variable "D" in the formula below. The match length is
> > variable "n"
> >
> > First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U =
> > 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1)
> > To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed as   1-U
> >
> > So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating
> > difference computed by Kee's forumla at the link provided was 47.13
> > (for example), you would get soemthing like:
> >
> > D = 47.13 (Rating difference)
> > n = 15 (Match length)
> >
> > U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1)
> > U = .447655
> >
> > Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77%
> > Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23%
> >
> > I haven't done any investigation, but I'm not sure if the
> > information needed to do the ratings difference calculation (Part 1
> > above) is available through standard player records, but I am pretty
> > sure if you use the relational database to store the records that
> > all the info you need is there.
> >
> > Let me know if this helps at all.
> >
> > Mike
> >
> > On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <address@hidden> wrote:

> > Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate) my match winning
> > chances against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in
> > the player records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is
> > 0.0200 and my opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate my
> > match winning chances for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would
> > like to get something like the "luck adjusted result" from the match
> > statistics which tells me that I am e.g. 60% favorite to win a 5pter
> > against this opponent. What is the formula?
> >
> > Thomas Koch
> >
> >
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> >
> > Michael Petch
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