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## Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances

 From: Christian Anthon Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances Date: Tue, 13 May 2008 00:41:10 +0200

```This doesn't work any more. The cube error rate was broken and had to
be fixed, which invalidates the formulas. New ones could be made if
somebody care. I don't.

Christian.

On Mon, May 12, 2008 at 6:47 PM, Michael Petch <address@hidden> wrote:
>
>  Considering that all you need is EPM and EPC (The error rates for the
> Unforced moves, and cubes) - the player records will suffice. The value N in
> the formula is the match length. These 3 values can simply be plugged into
> this reduce formula:
>
>  R = (8798 + 25526/N)*EPM+(863 - 519/N)*EPC,
>
>  R = ratings differnce based on checker, cube play, and match length values.
>
>
>  On 5/12/08 10:33 AM, "Michael Petch" <address@hidden> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>  The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel:
>
>  http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/
>
>  The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized at the top.
> How the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90% of the article
> after that.
>
>  Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then use the Fibs
> formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC. The part of the fibs
> formula you want is here:
>  Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use it as the
> value for variable "D" in the formula below. The match length is variable
> "n"
>
>  First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U =
> 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1)
>  To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed as   1-U
>
>  So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating difference
> computed by Kee's forumla at the link provided was 47.13 (for example), you
> would get soemthing like:
>
>  D = 47.13 (Rating difference)
>  n = 15 (Match length)
>
>  U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1)
>  U = .447655
>
>  Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77%
>  Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23%
>
>  I haven't done any investigation, but I'm not sure if the information
> needed to do the ratings difference calculation (Part 1 above) is available
> through standard player records, but I am pretty sure if you use the
> relational database to store the records that all the info you need is
> there.
>
>  Let me know if this helps at all.
>
>  Mike
>
>  On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <address@hidden> wrote:
>
>
> Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate) my match winning chances
> against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in the player
> records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is 0.0200 and my
> opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate my match winning chances
> for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would like to get something like the
> "luck adjusted result" from the match statistics which tells me that I am
> e.g. 60% favorite to win a 5pter against this opponent. What is the formula?
>
>  Thomas Koch
>
>
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>
>  Michael Petch
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