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Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances
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Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances |
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Thu, 07 Aug 2008 11:38:11 +0200 |
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Hi Nis,
first of all thanks for a great explanation. Indeed I did
misread/misinterprete the LAR before.
Zitat von Nis Jørgensen <address@hidden>:
Mueller Achim skrev:
Christian wrote something which could be misread. Jan's description is
more precise. Estimated Win % = 50% + LAR
The reason why I'm diving deeply into it is the following. I try to
figure out whether I'm able to beat the rake on certain backgammon
servers. Of course some reliable numbers and calculations wouldd help
here enormously. A few examples from last night. I'm always player B,
besides the last one (3p) all matches to 1p, a * shows who won:
Player: A B
Snowie error rate: 4.5 0.8
Luck adjusted result: -13.13 +13.13*
Error based abs. FIBS rating: 1667.8 1991.9
Snowie error rate: 3.5 1.7
Luck adjusted result: +13.50 -13.50*
Error based abs. FIBS rating: 1693.0 1910.1
Snowie error rate: 5.4 0.3
Luck adjusted result: -11.94 +11.94*
Error based abs. FIBS rating: 1576.3 2026.0
Snowie error rate: 21.3 0.1
Luck adjusted result: -10.38 +10.38*
Error based abs. FIBS rating: 1619.3 2046.6
As you might have guessed already, this is from one tournament.
My key question now is: how much of an advantage do I need to beat a
rake of 10%, 15% or 20% (that's what they take on certain bg servers
for low level tournaments).
Fibs formula (rounded) LAR Luck Rate
1) 59% 63.13% 36.87%
2) 56% 36.50% 63.50%
3) 62% 61.94% 38.06%
4) 62% 60.38% 39.62%
The first column is something I can deal with, the second and third
not. I do not have the Snowie MWC present, but I bet they totally
differ from the column LAR.
Ciao
Achim