I think the formula is already in gnubg,
it's the "Error based abs. FIBS rating".
MaX.
address@hidden
wrote on 13/05/2008 17:06:04:
> That is exactly what I am searching for. Thank you very much. I
> suppose that even with a biased cube error rate I will get pretty
> good results. The rating difference D must be D = R_favorite -
> R_underdog, right?
> Now that you are thinking about recalculating the values submitted
> by Kees van den Doel, how about integrating the formula into GnuBG?
> I think that would be quite handy and appreciated by most users!
> Thanks for your efforts and good luck with the calculations. I am
> looking forward to the reviewed formula!
>
> Thomas Koch
>
>
> 2008/5/12 Michael Petch <address@hidden>: > Considering that all you need is EPM and EPC
(The error rates for
> the Unforced moves, and cubes) - the player records will suffice.
> The value N in the formula is the match length. These 3 values can
> simply be plugged into this reduce formula:
>
> R = (8798 + 25526/N)*EPM+(863 - 519/N)*EPC,
>
> R = ratings differnce based on checker, cube play, and match length
values. >
> On 5/12/08 10:33 AM, "Michael Petch" <address@hidden>
wrote:
>
> The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel:
>
> http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/
>
> The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized at the
> top. How the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90% of
> the article after that.
>
> Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then use
> the Fibs formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC. The
> part of the fibs formula you want is here:
> Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use it
as
> the value for variable "D" in the formula below. The match
length is
> variable "n"
>
> First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U =
> 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1)
> To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed
as 1-U
>
> So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating
> difference computed by Kee's forumla at the link provided was 47.13
> (for example), you would get soemthing like:
>
> D = 47.13 (Rating difference)
> n = 15 (Match length)
>
> U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1)
> U = .447655
>
> Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77%
> Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23%
>
> I haven't done any investigation, but I'm not sure if the
> information needed to do the ratings difference calculation (Part
1
> above) is available through standard player records, but I am pretty
> sure if you use the relational database to store the records that
> all the info you need is there.
>
> Let me know if this helps at all.
>
> Mike
>
> On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <address@hidden>
wrote:
> Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate)
my match winning
> chances against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in
> the player records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is
> 0.0200 and my opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate
my
> match winning chances for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would
> like to get something like the "luck adjusted result" from
the match
> statistics which tells me that I am e.g. 60% favorite to win a 5pter
> against this opponent. What is the formula?
>
> Thanks in advance,
> Thomas Koch
>
>
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