Re: [Bug-gnubg] Question About Rollout

[Christian Anthon]

Hi Mochy,

the winning chances reported by a rollout are in a sense cubeless. What
actually goes on is the following. If a game is played to the end the
actual result is recorded, i.e. 1 lost backgammon counts as one game in
that column. However, many games are truncated, either by using the race
database, or at cash point. In these cases the evaluation values at the
truncation point is added to the individual columns. For example,
suppose that you double out when winning 60% games and 40% gammons. Then

0.60 0.40 0.00 - 0.40 0.00 0.00

would be added.

Christian.

> Hello,
> 
> I have a question about rollout.
> When we do rollout, GNUBG shows us two sets of numbers.
> One is Centerd 1 cube and the other one is Owned 2 cube.
> 
> Example;
> 
> Rollout details:
> Centered 1-cube:
>   0.669 0.146 0.002 - 0.331 0.078 0.003 CL  +0.405 CF  +0.621
> Player player owns 2-cube:
>   0.670 0.152 0.001 - 0.330 0.077 0.003 CL  +0.854 CF  +0.574
> 
> GNU shows me win,gammon,backgammon %s, but how does those numbers
> caluculate ?
> Does it mean probabillity of winning chances assuming doubler never
> double till the end of the game ? Cubeless chances?
> 
> Sometimes winning % of owns 2 cube is higher than that of centerd 1 cube.
> However it is rogically impossible. If you didnt double(centerd 1 cube) ,
> you could double later and could cash. If you double (owns 2cube by your
> opponent), then you have not such an option. So 2cube wining chances
> must be lower than 1 cube winning chances. But it is sometimes not.
> 
> I would really appreciate if someone answer me.
> 
> King Regards,
> Mochizuki Masayuki
> 
> 
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