Dear Swarm Modelling Group
Yesterday I gave a rather informal seminar on the use of agent-based
modeling to the animal genetics group at Colorado State University and
(not unexpectedly) received a couple of criticisms - especially from my
Ph.D. major advisor. Anyway, the two main criticisms that I attempted to
defend myself against were:
Criticism 1. One of my dissertation objectives is stated in this way: "To
explore the utility of Agent-Based Models in describing the industry-level
outcome of breeding decisions made by individual enterprises" As a note,
these breeding technologies are animal genetic technologies that allow
farmers to make more accurate genetic selection decisions.
Their view - The aim of assessing whether a methodology is appropriate to
a problem is not a suitable research objective in its own right, i.e. the
study should not undertake simulation for the sake of determining if
simulation works.
My view - Sometimes it is a valid objective to examine the methodology
rather than just the outcomes of the methodology, especially to test if
the methodology provides new insights into the system or opens up new
hypotheses not previously testable.
Criticism 2 - All agent-based modeling is essentially prediction.
Their view - any outcomes of an agent-based model are a prediction of
entities or processes in the system. Prediction can be thought of as any
declaration or estimate regarding the future.
My view - No the aim of agent-based modeling is frequently not a
declaration or estimate of the future but frequently relates to observing
the processes that lead to some future outcome. They argue that observing
these processes is prediction in its own right. I counter-argued that we
do not make a declaration or estimate of these processes at all- rather we
simply parameterize the agents in their own model world and hope some
"goodies" come out of the model. I guess the point is subtle, we (the
modeler) do not try and anticipate the future - we only parameterize the
present and observe what possible futures may exist. Maybe this is an
estimate of the future after all?
Any thoughts or comments on these points of view would be most welcome.
Cheers, Paul Charteris
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The Department of Animal Sciences
Fort Collins CO 80523-1171
USA
Ph. +1 970 491 5785
Fax. +1 970 491 5326
Personal homepage: http://ansci.colostate.edu/dep/people/grads/plc/
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