Swarmfest abstract

[Paul E. Johnson]

OK, here I go again.

SwarmFest 2000 Abstract:
Opinion Formation and the Resilience of Diversity

Paul Johnson (coauthor: Robert Huckfeldt, University of Indiana)
Feb. 24, 2000

This project explores agent-based models of the formation of individual
opinions and collective judgments.  The goal is to understand the effect
of political communication on opinion formation and collective
decisionmaking.    

The analysis begins by exploring the culture model originally proposed
by Robert Axelrod.  Axelrod's model is highly tractable, and thus it is
a good starting point. It has some fundamental weaknesses, however.  One
of the most important substantive weaknesses is that the model generally
predicts the eradication of diversity over the long run.  The model
predicts that all people (or almost all) will agree about all issues.
Empirical studies by Huckfeldt and Sprague have found that disagreement
can persist over the long run in sample data, and in addition they have
found a relatively high degree of diversity among the networks in which
there is social interaction.  As a result of the clash between the
tendencies observed in the model and the empirical findings, we seek to
adjust the model to generate patterns which seem more empirically
likely. The  new model should allow us to investigate the impact of
additional variables.

That model is generalized in a number of ways. The first generalization
is to reconceptualize the "villages" in Axelrod's model as multi-member
entities, rather than aggregates.  This brings into play a factor called
"parochialism", the tendency of an individual to seek communication with
a narrowly defined sphere.

The second reconceptualization is to consider the process of network
formation
for political discussion.  We begin by allowing agents to be selective
in their choice of discussion partners, and then we introduce the effect
of changes in the agent's position among a number of environments. 

All models are built with the Swarm Simulation System, an open source
toolkit written in Objective-C.

References: 
Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models
of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton, NJ: Princeton 

Huckfeldt, Robert, and John Sprague. 1995. Citizens, Politics, and
Social Communication. New York: Cambridge University Press.University
Press. 



-- 
Paul E. Johnson                         email: address@hidden
Dept. of Political Science              http://lark.cc.ukans.edu/~pauljohn
University of Kansas                    Office: (785) 864-9086
Lawrence, Kansas 66045                  FAX: (785) 864-5700


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