|Subject:||Re: [Bug-gnubg] Wrong luck adjusted result on Grandmaster analysis|
|Date:||Mon, 5 Jan 2015 14:17:25 +0000|
The luck adjusted result looks OK to me.
You had -12.342% luck and tophat had +35.705% luck.
The actual result was you -50%, tophat +50%.
The Luck-Adjusted result formula = Actual Result – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck.
Your luck-adjusted result = -50 - -12.342 + 35.705 = -1.953%
Tophat’s luck-adjusted result = 50 – 35.705 + -12.342 = -1.953%
In other words, without the luck, tophat would have got to 1.95% instead of +50%, and you would have got to -1.95% instead of -50%. His victory was almost entirely by luck.
You aren’t the first person to find this confusing.
If the formula were instead (50 – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck), we would have got 98.05% and 1.95% in your favour.
May be it’s the Actual Result that is the source of the confusion. If this were reported as +100 and 0, rather than +50 and -50, the current formula (Result – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck), would give 48.05% and 51.95%. This indicates that, with the luck removed, your opponent only managed to get from 50% to 51.95%. Again, his victory was almost entirely luck.
I think that (50 – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck) gives the most intuitive result.
Does anyone know how the other two active bots, XG and BgBlitz, report the luck adjusted result? It might be sensible to standardize on a definition and use that. I’ve a feeling that XG uses (50 – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck), but this is only based on my hazy recollection of the discussions at DailyGammon when Miran ran some luck-adjusted tournaments.
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