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[Bug-gnubg] cube decisions

From: Mark Higgins
Subject: [Bug-gnubg] cube decisions
Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2012 14:59:40 -0500

I think the standard for cube decisions is to follow a Tesauro (2002) approach 
of approximating cube decisions with a function that takes cubeless 
probabilities and some measure of volatility (eg std dev of equity over the 
next roll or two). I assume this is what GNUbg does?

Has anyone looked at approximating cube decisions with a neural network? ie a 
different net than the cubeless evaluation nets - one that takes the cubeless 
probabilities as inputs, plus volatility, plus whatever other inputs you might 
want to include. Outputs would be "double" (you double if output value exceeds 
a threshold - only valid with the cube in the middle), "redouble" (only valid 
if you own the cube), and "take/pass" (what you do when offered the cube).

Since (in principle) a neural net can approximate any nonlinear fn, it should 
be able to approximate the Tesauro one. But it allows for a more accurate 
approximation (again, in principle), plus the flexibility to add new inputs 
that improves the approximation.

It sounds kind of plausible to me, but I don't see much mention of this 
approach when I google around, so I suspect it's harder than it initially 

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