|Subject:||[Bug-gnubg] A player's average chance to win a game if GNU Backgammon's "Error rate mEMG" for both players is known|
|Date:||Fri, 29 Jul 2011 18:48:39 +0300|
I once posted here the question whether there were any data about each player's average chances to win a game, if GNU Backgammon's calculated "Error rate mEMG" for both players are known (based on a large sample of games, and always available through GNU's accumulative "relational database").
As a reply I was referred to a table of chances based on "Elo rating", used in backgammon servers. Although this is nice by itself, I would much prefer the above data. That's because the "Elo rating" fluctuates much according to a player being new or old in the server, luck, "good/bad periods" etc; while, given many games as a basis, GNU's Error rate mEMG becomes much more stable and reliable.
So, for instance, where can I find data or formulas about the chances of player "A" (average Error rate mEMG=13.33) to win a single money game against player "B" (average Error rate mEMG=18.50)?
Or, for that matter, how would GNU fare playing against itself over a very large number of games with settings to match these different Error rate mEMG's?I guess I could run some such experiments with GNU playing against itself. But, of course, I'd prefer ready-made data if they exist. Indeed, I would be very surprised to learn that they don't, since they would be very valuable for players on real money through the web.
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