[Top][All Lists]
[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
[Bug-gnubg] Re: with a Little Help From My Friends
From: |
Philippe Michel |
Subject: |
[Bug-gnubg] Re: with a Little Help From My Friends |
Date: |
Wed, 29 Dec 2010 18:11:27 +0100 (CET) |
User-agent: |
Alpine 2.00 (BSF 1167 2008-08-23) |
On Mon, 27 Dec 2010, Wilson Amaral Jorge wrote:
I need understand why there is a divergence so great between the numbers
showed in the (Analyse)Market Window and Evaluation/Hint. Better
explaining: in a particular game -2/-4, cube 2 with the trailer, the
Market Window showed Cash Point 50% and Too Good 82.495%.
However, when the trailer was only with 61.4% of GWC chances, he asked a
Hint and it was Too Good. From 61.4% to 82.495% is a huge difference,
maybe I'm not understanding something.
What may be misleading here is the 61.4% number : it is a cubeless number,
the percentage of games you would win *if you never redouble*.
In reality, you will redouble quite often, when the oppenent rolls
something that decrease your gammons chances but you're still above the
50% cash point.
For instance, suppose you roll 6-2 and he rolls 3-3. He will anchor up on
the 18 or 21 point ; your gammon chances become much smaller but you can
still cash and that's what you should do.
In the cubeless calculation that gave the 61.4%, this continuation is
counted for something like 55% (your cubeless GWC) but in reality it is
worth 100% (your GWC with cube access).
When every continuation is accounted for, it looks like you're indeed too
good (according 3 or 4 ply evaluation, 0, 1 and 2 ply say double/pass).
But you won't win 61% of the games with 17% gammons like the cubeless
numbers suggest, it will be more like 90% games (almost all cashes) and
relatively few gammons.
How gnubg estimates cubeful equity/GWC is described here, for instance :
http://www.gnubg.org/win32/gnubg/gnubg.html#Cubeful%20equities
[Prev in Thread] |
Current Thread |
[Next in Thread] |
- [Bug-gnubg] Re: with a Little Help From My Friends,
Philippe Michel <=