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[Bug-gnubg] Predicted time for finishing the rollout

From: Hardy Hübener
Subject: [Bug-gnubg] Predicted time for finishing the rollout
Date: Tue, 07 Apr 2009 10:04:37 +0200
User-agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; de; rv: Gecko/20071210 Thunderbird/ Mnenhy/

Hi everyone,

don't know whether this has ever been discussed here. If so, disregard my mail.

When you conduct a rollout and find out that the result is not significant enough and resume this rollout with more trials, the time prediction how long this rollout will last is of no use.

I think GNUBG is calculating the remaining time from how long it took to reach the previous rollout. As the rollout started with the previous result, it took GNUBG 0 (zero) seconds to reach this amount of trials. So if I prolong a 1296 trials rollout to 2592 trials GNUBG is predicting that the rollout will be finished in a couple of seconds. However it's going to take hours (of course).

Perhaps another algorithm could be used to calculate the remaining time more accurate. (There are more important features, but as I do many rollouts, it's sometimes helpful how long a rollout is going to take approximately.)



Hardy's Backgammon Pages --> www.hardys-backgammon-pages.com

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