On gammonline "Stick" claimed that 0ply doubled early. That came as a
bit of a surprise to me, so I set gnubg up to play expert/expert.
After around 20000 games gnubg had used more than half of the
computers memory and I cancelled the match at that point. Then I did a
2ply analysis of the cube actions only. The statistics is striking,
Almost a third of 0ply's doubles are considered early and the ratio
(early doubles):(missed double takes) is 10:1. The cube action of 0ply
is still excellent though.
Perhaps all this is just a manifestation of gnubg 0ply overestimating
the equity of the player on roll, but I still found it interesting.
Christian.
Player gnubg0ply gnubg0ply
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 479 466
Rolls marked lucky 1301 1258
Rolls unmarked 25483 25436
Rolls marked unlucky 1054 1152
Rolls marked very unlucky 167 176
Luck rate (total) +68.361 (+48.110) +28.019 (+91.308)
Luck rate (per move) +2.4 ( +0.002) +1.0 ( +0.003)
Luck rating None None
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 19141 20119
Close or actual cube decisions 3132 3002
Doubles 966 898
Takes 624 689
Passes 274 277
Missed doubles (below CP) 30 (-1.560 ( -2.828)) 28 (-1.146 ( -1.543))
Missed doubles (above CP) 4 (-0.127 ( -0.255)) 1 (-0.011 ( -0.022))
Wrong doubles (below DP) 292 (-9.209 (-10.496)) 260 (-7.768 ( -9.034))
Wrong doubles (above TG) 11 (-0.110 ( -0.303)) 6 (-0.025 ( -0.074))
Wrong takes 24 (-0.895 ( -1.523)) 16 (-0.721 ( -2.028))
Wrong passes 15 (-0.723 ( -1.268)) 16 (-0.720 ( -0.962))
Error rate (total) -12.624 (-16.673) -10.391 (-13.662)
Error rate (per cube decision) -4.0 ( -0.005) -3.5 ( -0.005)
Cube decision rating World class World class
Overall statistics
Error rate (total) -12.624 (-16.673) -10.391 (-13.662)
Error rate (per decision) -4.0 ( -0.005) -3.5 ( -0.005)
Equiv. Snowie error rate -0.2 -0.2
Overall rating World class World class
Actual result -73.000 +73.000
Luck adjusted result -29.802 +29.802
Advantage (actual) in ppg -0.053 +0.053
95% confidence interval (ppg) 0.163 0.163
Advantage (luck adjusted) in ppg -0.022 +0.022
95% confidence interval (ppg) 0.027 0.027
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