Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Strange FIBS ratings

[Jim Segrave]

On Mon 08 Sep 2003 (21:06 +0200), address@hidden wrote:
> On Mon, 8 Sep 2003, Jim Segrave wrote:
> 
> > But if we look at the full figures Albert quoted:
> >
> > Overall statistics
> > Error rate (total)              -2.769 (-29.273%)    -1.134 (-14.183%)
> > Error rate (per decision)       -51.28 ( -0.542%)    -20.25 ( -0.253%)
> > Equiv. Snowie error rate        -26.37               -10.80
> >
> > Overall rating                  Awful!               Casual player
> >
> > Actual result                    +50.00%              -50.00%
> > Luck adjusted result             -11.78%              +11.78%
> > Luck based FIBS rating diff.    -186.55
> > Error based abs. FIBS rating    1465.2               1704.0
> > Chequerplay errors rating loss   353.5                344.7
> > Cube errors rating loss          231.4                  1.3
> >
> > The left hand column has an overall error rate of .020
> > The Cube errors rating loss is 1.3, chequer play is 344.7, which
> > suggests very strongly that cube errors were not a factor here, and
> > that the overall error rate comes from chequer errors. The Fibs rating
> > is 1700.
> >
> > Colour me surprised.
> 
> One of the  "surprizing" results of my simulations  was that cube errors
> have a much smaller effect on rating than previously assumed.

And before you said - regarding the same figures:

> That .02  is NOT a chequer error  rate but an overall  errror
> rate. That fact may lessen your surprize.  

To which I pointed out that the overall error rate was unlikely to
contain much of a cube factor.

I have seen a lot of commentarty in a lot of places which suggest that
the error rates for Fibs players (both Snowie figures and gnubg ones)
are a good deal lower than this by the time you reach the 1700 to 1800
level. The same comment Albert is making.


> [7pt match]
> > Chequerplay statistics
> > Error rate (per move)           +0.000                  -23.08 ( -0.332%)
> > Cube statistics
> > Error rate (per cube decision)  +0.000                  -12.83 ( -0.147%)
> > Cube decision rating            Supernatural            Intermediate
> > Error based abs. FIBS rating    2050.0                  1752.7
> > Chequerplay errors rating loss     0.0                   287.2
> > Cube errors rating loss            0.0                    10.1
> 
> > Now you're telling me that an average chequer play error of .023, an average
> > cube error of .13 an overall error rate of .020 is 1750 level play on FIBs?
> 
> 12.83/1000 = .013, not .13.

Thank you for your keen observation of a typo. It may surprise you to
find that I am capable of doing arithmetic and that I probably could
read the information in the column of data which I included. 

I will rephrase the question:

Are you telling me that an average chequer play error of 0.023, and an
average cube error rate of 0.013 is likely to be typical of a 1750
rated player on Fibs?

-- 
Jim Segrave           address@hidden