Re: [Bug-gnubg] rollout cube decision -- money play: BUG

[Joern Thyssen]

On Mon, Jul 01, 2002 at 09:53:16AM +0200, Robert-Jan Veldhuizen wrote
> Hi team,
> 
> Look at this:
> 
> PosID: 794ggABb2wRDAA
> MatchID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
> 
> A cube decision in a money session. 4-ply evaluation (24 candidates, 1.00 
> tolerance) gives this answer:
> 
>          Win     W(g)    W(bg)   L(g)    L(bg)   Equity  (cubeful)
> static:  69.8%   14.8%    0.2%    2.7%    0.0%  (+0.396  (+0.831))
>   1 ply:  70.2%   16.6%    0.2%    2.6%    0.0%  (+0.404  (+0.887))
>   2 ply:  68.8%   14.5%    0.1%    3.0%    0.0%  (+0.376  (+0.798))
>   3 ply:  71.0%   17.8%    0.2%    3.5%    0.1%  (+0.420  (+0.969))
>   4 ply:  69.4%   15.6%    0.2%    3.0%    0.0%  (+0.388  (+0.855))
> 
> Double, take        : +0.855
> Double, pass        : +1.000   (+0.145)
> No double           : +0.417   (-0.438)
> Correct cube action: Double, take
> 
> Now (cubeful, variance reduced) rollouts come up with this:
> 
>                                Win    W(g)   W(bg)  L(g)   L(bg) 
> Equity  Cubeful
>               Centered 1-cube 0.6886 0.1440 0.0015 0.0368 0.0006 +0.3724 
> +0.6093
>                Standard error 0.0008 0.0008 0.0001 0.0007 0.0001  0.0017 
> +0.0143
>       Player shos owns 2-cube 0.7032 0.1855 0.0051 0.0391 0.0013 +0.5565 
> +0.5777
>                Standard error 0.0012 0.0018 0.0006 0.0009 0.0002  0.0036 
> +0.0092

I think I've managed to find the bug. I now get:

                              Win    W(g)   W(bg)  L(g)   L(bg) Equity Cubeful
             Centered 1-cube 0.6891 0.1434 0.0014 0.0372 0.0007 +0.3745 +0.4228
              Standard error 0.0009 0.0009 0.0000 0.0008 0.0001  0.0020 +0.0090
    Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.7026 0.1842 0.0061 0.0400 0.0007 +1.1094 +0.9942
              Standard error 0.0014 0.0023 0.0007 0.0011 0.0002  0.0083 +0.0182


which seems more realistic.

Can you try Øysteins next build and see if it works better now?

Jørn

-- 
Joern Thyssen, PhD
Vendsysselgade 3, 3., DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark
+45 9813 2791 (private) / +45 2077 2689 (mobile) / +45 9633 7036 (work)