[Heartlogic-dev] statistics (was Re: Open Heart Logic)

[Joshua N Pritikin]

On Sun, Oct 26, 2003 at 11:59:50PM -0600, William L. Jarrold wrote:
> On Wed, 22 Oct 2003, Joshua N Pritikin wrote:
> > Can we assume a single methodology or are many different
> > statistical approaches possible?
> 
> It is very likely that many different statistical approaches
> are possible.
> 
> I think we can hack our way through the first 100 survey responses
> just to learn more about the issues.  As Mr Bottom Up Man, I am
> a firm believer in learning via experience.  Plus, it allows me
> to indulge procrastination.

Fair enough.

> > What I imagine is that we'll ask a question like:
> >
> >   Tracy wants a banana.
> >   Mummy gives Tracy an apple.
> >   ->
> >   Tracy is sad because she wants a banana.
> >
> >   Believable?  (Yes) (Somewhat) (Not really) (No)
> 
> *Exactly*....Except for the minor detail that I think it is
> better to have a Likerat rating scale.  That is,
> "Please rate the believability of the above scenario on a scale
> from one to five"....There should be an example in the dissertation.

Likerat, yah.  No problem.

> If not or if you wanna see more examples, I can send you a survey soon.

Sure, more examples would be good.

> > Then we'll show the user stats about how many people voted
> > for each evaluation, adjusting for ablation.  (?)
> 
> Ugh.  More or less.  To really get that across how that works
> will take a long time (not to mention a much better understanding
> of stats than I have now).
> 
> Hmm, should I attempt to explain statistical inference to you?

No, but you should try to point me in the right direction.
What I did (in a panic) is to read about half of this book:

  http://www.stat.lsa.umich.edu/~faraway/book/

That helped, but I am still feeling a little bit uneasy
about the statistics.  Should I invest $100 on what seems
to be the standard reference?

  "Statistical Analysis With Missing Data" by Little, Rubin

Or is this a waste of money?  Can you send me a copy of
this article?

  Graham, J.W., Hofer, S.M., & MacKinnon, D.P. (1996). Maximizing
  the usefulness of data obtained with planned missing value
  patterns: An application of maximum likelihood procedures.
  Multivariate Behavioral Research, 31(2), 197-218.

The other question is, am I taking this too seriously?
Are you confident that you can wave the magic wand and
do robust statistical inference of the highest scientific
standards?

> > What other testing formats do we want to accomadate?
> > A good prediction about this can save us redesign later.
> 
> Hmm, not sure.  I mean, I am sure we will eventually want
> other testing formats than items like in my dissertation.

Can I assume that there will always be these components:

  given assumptions
  appraisal (from the KR model)
  believability rating of the appraisal (from the user)

Or is this too restrictive?  Can you predict anything
about the structure of our questioning?

> > One side benefit is
> > that we probably don't have to worry about getting hosted on
> > a super powerful computer.
> 
> Hmm.  Does OpenMind have a super powerful computer at their
> disposal?

It is certainly more powerful than the computer we will
start with.  ;-)

> > Once we have something basic working then we will be able
> > to publish an article such as "The [Open] Heart Logic
> > Initiative" with a call-for-participation.
> 
> Yipee.  But, I'd rather get a lot of friends to try it out first.

Yah, obviously.  :-)

> Also, if we have something soonish, maybe we can get some subjects
> from the UT subject pool to try it.  At the end of the semester
> there are usually a bunch of kids who have procrastinated and missed
> their chances to participate in required research.  As a result
> they must do some dumb assigment which some poor slob grad student
> must grade.  Well, we can save poor slob grad student IF our
> system is working in time.  I'll need to check with Diane
> if this is an option, but if you think that you can have something
> which more or less replicates my dissertation ready by say Nov 25th,
> then I should ask Diane soon if we can qualify for the study.  They
> will have to make special exceptions since we did not go through
> the usual application process back in Aug/Sept.

Nov 25.  Let's see what I can do.

-- 
A new cognitive theory of emotion, http://savannah.nongnu.org/projects/aleader