Re: [Bug-gnubg] can someone explain this please?

[Joern Thyssen]

On Sun, Jul 20, 2003 at 02:57:09PM +1200, Joseph Heled wrote
> Error rate (total)    -0.015 ( -0.046%)       -0.117 ( -0.356%)
> Error rate (per decision)     -0.001 ( -0.002% )      -0.007 ( -0.021% )
> Equivalent Snowie error rate  -0.4    -3.4
> Overall rating        Supernatural    Expert
> Actual result         52.94%  47.06%
> Luck adjusted result  49.47%  50.53%
> Relative FIBS rating  -3.68   3.68
> 
> 
> X came out Supernatural vs. Expert, but his luck adjested result is  49.47%
> 
> What's the catch?

Based on the error rate X is 50% - 0.046% + 0.356% = 50.3% favourite,
but the luck adjusted result is 49.5%.

I guess this is the kind of differences you expect to see between biased
and non-biased results. If X played gnubg-like the "overall" rating will
be biased towards him.

Also, the luck adjusted result come from a 0-ply analysis whereas the
error rate comes from a 2-ply analysis hence you'd expect to see
differences.

Since this surely will be brought up by others I might as well write
a section for the manual that I can feed to them.

Jørn